The time is ripe to invest in prime retail assets after years of declining values, according to Marco Kramer, global head of research and investment strategy at Real IS.
Speaking to PropertyEU at Expo Real in Munich, Kramer said that his ‘conservative’ investors were still more interested in reliable assets in the logistics and residential sectors but that retail now offers real opportunities for those with more of an appetite for risk.
‘If you have a higher risk appetite, you should do shopping centres,’ he said. ‘In my view, it is perfect timing as the worst is behind us. Footfall in the major cities in Germany is coming back. Wages need to recover, but in general I would say in terms of rents the story is you need to invest in shopping centres.’
Kramer pointed out that the growth in e-commerce has flattened out, something that has benefited physical retail and dampened demand for logistics space from online retailers. ‘Because of the pandemic, e-commerce increased by 20-30%,’ he said.
‘Then the expectation was that this would continue forever. But now we see the demand for space from the big e-commerce providers like Amazon… they are no longer in the market in terms of asking for space, so the logistics market has changed.’
However, Kramer added that he viewed the situation as being a net positive for logistics. ‘It’s a good normalisation,’ he said. ‘The market beforehand wasn't sustainable. We had vacancy rates in the area of 1% to 2%. That is not a sustainable market.’
He added: ‘Rents are going up by around 3% to 5% and I would say this is a normal market. I think this is a good story. We don’t need this double-digit growth rate.'