Investors expect Nordic transactions to drop by almost half

Most investors in the Nordics expect the volume of transactions to almost halve this year.

In a snapshot survey sent to clients by pan-Nordic broker Pangea Property Partners, 51% of responses expect transaction volume of between €25bn-€30bn in 2020.

Some 26% are more pessimistic putting the figure at €15bn-€25bn.

Last year, Pangea’s volume total was €45.5bn and it recorded the Q1 2020 value traded at €7.8 bn.

Almost two-thirds (63%) said the market is on hold because there is too much uncertainty in the short term. About half do not expect the market to be back to normal until either 2021 (41%) or even 2022 (8%), while 30% hope to see activity recover in Q4 and 16% in Q3.

Lack of opportunity to view properties or to complete due diligence did not figure highly as the main obstacle and was cited by only 11%. Instead, financing was picked by almost half as the biggest problem going forward.

An encouraging 35% said they are ready now to consider specific opportunities. Of the rest, 22% said the time would be after the summer and 38% that their investing strategies are on hold until the uncertainty is reduced.

Pangea received nearly 200 responses.

Listed property companies in the region have taken a big hit since the crisis took hold, lurching from premiums to discounts to valuation; Nordic prop-cos had been the top performers in Europe in the last year.

In the week before Easter listed Nordic real estate was down -35% from the all-time high in February. Hotel companies took the largest hit, while residential is less affected.

Banks are restricting lending and the regional bond market is almost closed except to residential and public sector propcos, Pangea says in an April Coronavirus Update note to clients. And in step with investors and brokers in other European markets, the Nordic firm also says it anticipates a larger price differentiation between core and secondary properties.


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