Recent opinion polls show the leave campaign gaining traction but international companies and real estate owners continue to believe that the UK public will vote to remain in the European Union when the 'Brexit' referendum is held later this month, according to JLL. And almost two thirds of real estate investors feel a Brexit will have little or no effect on their future strategies.
A recent JLL survey of top international corporate occupiers and UK-based investors into their business attitudes to the EU referendum found 80% held the view that UK will reject the call to leave the EU.
The finding of the survey have been released as a YouGov opinion poll carried out for The Times newsletter indicated that the 'Leave' camp was at 46% support compared with 39% support for the campaign to remain. A further 11% were undecided and 4% indicate they won't vote. Other polls carried out recently also show Brexit may be a real possibility.
The JLL survey also revealed attitudes of corporates and investors to future property market decisions in the event of a Brexit. Some 60% of the investors surveyed felt that there would be no changes to their property strategy in the short or long term as a result of a leave vote. Only 30% expect reduced allocations in UK property.
Of the corporate occupiers surveyed, almost half foresaw they would need to review their UK business space in both the short or long term. A third believed it will reduce leasing activity in the short term and lead to reduced headcount in the longer term. Only around 1 in 5 think it will have no impact on strategy in the short term, a figure that falls to 13% in the longer term.
The London office market was seen as being by far the most likely to be affected due to the significance of the financial services market which would be most immediately vulnerable to Brexit. The most obvious issue is the potential withdrawal of 'passporting' rights allowing them to offer services throughout the EU from London.
JLL predicts that if the UK does leave the EU, there is likely to be a slowdown in investment and leasing in the short term. However, London's key attributes as a business location: talent base, language, the time zone advantages and the networks of businesses and institutions, would mean that it would remain a magnet for both occupiers and investors.
JLL UK CEO Chris Ireland commented: 'While the medium and long term economic and property market implications of a Brexit can be exaggerated, there would be greater uncertainty in the property market, with a reduction in leasing and investment volumes in the short term. Staying in the EU will give us far more stability.'
'Investors are more optimistic than occupiers about the outlook if a Brexit were to occur probably because they are aware of the wider attractions that the UK property market has to global capital. There would however be a period of significant uncertainty.'